Recently, despite the low inventory consumption than the support of steel prices, but the steel market is still a drag on the overall decline in commodity prices. At the same time, over the years from the price trend of view, the probability of a larger steel prices, while the price of iron ore fell, the output of crude steel and other large steel prices will guide the downward.
Europe and the United States show economic worries, the macroeconomic environment to suppress commodity prices up
Over the same period last year, the Greek debt crisis, with the continued decline in sovereign rating, commodity prices have fallen sharply. After the aid a year later, as the first occurrence of the debt crisis in euro zone countries, Greece's economic situation has not been improved, but there is a worsening trend, bond yields sharply higher, the two-year yield even close to 20 times that of germany. At the same time, the approval of the Portuguese debt assistance also makes the European Union once again the possibility of assistance to Greece and the size are greatly reduced. In addition, there are no signs of improvement in other affected countries, which will undoubtedly increase the economic risk of the euro zone to a great extent.
From the point of view, on the one hand, the U.S. debt default risk and other risks surfaced, plus New York manufacturing index and the U.S. housing index and other related economic data at a relatively low, making this worry; on the other hand, QE2 is about to expire will lead to market speculation, once continue to implement quantitative easing, inflation continued to deepen or will cause great damage to the world economy, even once again into a crisis may. And if the implementation of austerity policies, commodity prices or into the down channel, thus leading to lower levels of inflation in the country.
Therefore, the author believes that with the European economic risks appear, no matter how late American policy, commodity prices continue upward pressures will continue to increase, the steel city is also difficult to own.
Manufacturing orders seasonal reduction in the price of steel is difficult to rise
Domestic economic data released in the near future, on the one hand the domestic inflation pressure is still large, tightening expectations are still a major force in the market to sell short. However, the author believes that, in addition to CPI, announced the manufacturing PMI index fell, in a great extent reflects the status of the manufacturing sector, while bringing concerns to the downstream business.
Since 2007 the domestic comprehensive monthly PMI data, the calendar year of May are in the down trend, which is the direct reaction of orders from downstream manufacturing, can be expected in the premise of this year's international environment weakening, the order reduction of the problem will continue to deepen, is expected to reduce the demand will make the steel is easy or hard up.
Production continued to innovate high, late production capacity release, the market supply pressure increased
From the steel raw material market situation, the production of coke and iron ore inventories have increased significantly, and exceeded the historical high. Excess supply of raw materials will make the steel into a holding role decreases, the steel price increases momentum weakened. In addition, since March the average daily crude steel production of a new high since the past two months are in a rising channel, and constantly refresh the historical records, the late pressure has become a big hidden capacity. In addition, from the steel production cycle, the pre continuous amplification of production capacity, the recent or will enter the end of the end product release to the market, the possibility of increasing supply pressure concentrated, resulting in steel prices fell
Cycle indicators show that access to the channel, steel prices or seasonal decline
From the period of the figure, nearly two weeks the steel price trend will change, the rally ended. And from the perspective of historical price fluctuations, the spot price of steel in the two quarter of the end tends to be a stage low. Since 2004, in addition to 2006, the rest of May each year, steel prices are in a downward channel. The author believes that the combination of seasonal fluctuations and technical indicators point of view, the probability of late decline in steel prices greatly increased.
In summary, in Europe and the United States economy slowing, the debt crisis continued under the macro environment, small possibility of a sharp rise in commodity prices, while overcapacity in the steel industry, demand for short-term after the release of future production pressure on the market or will make the steel prices fell sharply.